• The most-promising region globally for beer sales is Asia, which had 8% annual growth from 2003-2008. Not surprisingly, China is not only the world’s largest population but the biggest beer market. India is second, with $12bn in sales and 12-15% annual growth. Both countries have brewing traditions going back to colonial introductions (the Germans in China and the British in India), but now even in smaller markets in Southeast Asia like Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, beer consumption is growing among the young thanks to rising incomes.
• Supermarket sales in Brazil continue to surge, up 4.8% compared to last year. Forecasts for this year are currently for a 4.5% growth rate, an increase over the previous 2.5% prognostication. Although the first 6 months of this year have seen sales rise 5.27% over the first half of ’08, June sales were off 5.59% from May, the second consecutive monthly decline. Despite the economic slowdown in Latin America’s largest economy due in part to lower exports, rising salaries and falling interest rates have bolstered Brazil’s retail sector. Additionally, consumers access to credit has also expanded thanks to the central bank’s intervention. Inflation is expected to remain below the government’s official target of 4.5% for the year. Brazil’s major grocers are Companhia Brasiliera de Distribuicao (CBD), France’s Carrefour SA, and U.S. retail behemoth Wal-Mart Stores Inc. French retailer Casino Guichard Perrachon SA owns a 34.3% stake in CBD.
• Cold Stone Creamery (owned by franchising packager Kahala) is following the co-branding of its stores strategy begun in the US as it attempts to expand in Europe. Thirteen stores sharing its brand with Sv. Michelsen Chokolade, Denmark’s leading chocolate manufacturer & retailer, will be opening in Copenhagen and other parts of the country. Previously Cold Stone had co-branded its stores with the Tim Horton’s chain.
• In the UK, The Competition Commission (CC) has proposed the creation of a food ombudsman to settle disputes between supermarkets and suppliers after retailers failed to come up with a voluntary mechanism. Long-time readers of this newsletter know that food manufacturers in particular have complained about how retail chains are not only pressuring them on margins, but are directly competing with Private Label brands and offering services like banking, travel agencies, etc. The CC has gone slowly on implementing change thanks in part to the competition between Britain’s top four chains having kept prices down. The chains insist an ombudsman will become a mouthpiece for the suppliers and lead to higher prices, while the manufacturers insist pricing pressure by the retailers is forcing them to seek low-wage workforces in developing countries, holding down the standard of living there. The UK grocery supply market is estimated at ₤70bn.
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